Illinois gubernatorial election, 2010

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The Illinois gubernatorial election of 2010 will be held on November 2, 2010 following a primary election on February 2, 2010.[1]

The deadline for submission of nominating signatures to qualify for the primary ballot was November 2, 2009.

Democrat Pat Quinn, the incumbent, fended off his primary challengers while the Republicans nominated Bill Brady to face him in November.

Polls are open from 6:00 am to 7:00 pm, local time, on all election days. Registration deadlines are 28 days prior to election day for both primary and general elections.[2]

The Congressional Quarterly Gubernatorial Race Tracker for 2010 still ranks the race as "Leans Democratic" as of June 2010.[3]

The Cook Political Report ranks the race as "Toss up" as of June 17.[4]


The November Ballot – Who's Made It? Illinois Governor[5]
Nominee Affiliation
Pat Quinn, with Sheila Simon Democrat
Bill Brady, with Jason Plummer Republican
Rich Whitney, with Don W. Crawford Green
Lex Green, with Ed Rutledge Libertarian
Scott Lee Cohen, with Baxter B. Swilley Independent
This lists candidates who won their state's primary or convention, or who were unopposed, and who have since been officially certified for the November ballot by their state's election authority.

Race ratings

2010 Race Rankings Illinois
Race Tracker Race Rating
The Cook Political Report[6] Toss-up
Congressional Quarterly Politics[7] Leans Democratic
Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard[8] Toss-up
The Rothenberg Political Report[9] Lean Republican
Overall Call Toss-up



Race background

The gubernatorial race in Illinois in 2010 is one of the most analyzed and significant races of the year. In 2008, former Governor Rod Blagojevich was indicted and arrested on a host of corruption charges. Illinois has a storied past of corrupt politicians, and the Blagojevich incident both highlighted that past and undercut faith in government almost entirely in a state that had little enough to begin with.[10] Blagojevich's ties to President Obama, former Illinois state senator as well as a former U.S. Senator from Illinois, further complicated the situation for the state.[11]

Key issues

In 2010, voters top concerns include wasteful spending, trustworthy governance, fiscal responsibility, and ethics, due in large part to the Blagojevich scandal[12]. The incumbent, Governor Pat Quinn, was appointed to replace Blagojevich, having previously served as his Lt. Governor.

Some specific campaign issues include the expansion of Chicago's O'Hare airport[13], a potential tax increase of up to 50% proposed by Governor Quinn[14], and Illinois' economy[15] and high unemployment[16].

Historically, Illinois has shifted from strongly Democratic to strongly Republican more than once. Long considered a battleground state, it has been considered solidly blue for some years now. That trend may count against Republicans in the general election. However, some suggest anti-incumbent sentiment and continuing economic woes may prove beneficial to the GOP in 2010, as happened with the victory of Scott Brown in the Massachusetts special election in January, 2010.[17]

Polling performance

While Quinn's struggles with the state's fiscal disarray are showing in his approval as governor, it is having far less impact on the coming election. Fully a third of Illinois' citizens 'strongly disapprove' of the incumbent's job, yet he picks up 40% in the latest polls against Brady.[18] The same poll shows Republican Bill Brady holding a small lead at 43%, down four points from June. Brady's decline and Quinn's gain mean the latter has made up more than three-fourths of the gap he faced just after Memorial Day and the start of the summer campaign season.

Quinn's pick-up in the polls may be a response to his recent announcement of plans to trim $1 billion in state government spending in response to Illinois' fiscal crisis, one of the worst budget gaps in the nation. Earlier in the summer, the legislature adjourned, leaving a $13 billion deficit for the governor to address. It may also owe something to name recognition and the benefits of incumbency. For better or worse, almost all potential voters have an opinion on Pat Quinn, while Rasmussen's July 7, 2010 polling found 15% had no definite opinion of Brady.

On July 7, 2010, Rasmussen released numbers showing that while Democrat Pat Quinn has narrowed the gap, he was still behind the GOP's Bill Brady, suggesting that the fall-out from Blagojevich's impeachment and the former governor's recent return to the headlines may still be hurting Democratic hopes. However, Brady's lead at this point was small, 43% to Quinn's 40%.[19] Supporters of third party candidates and undecided voters may have significant impact at the November polls.

Prior surveys of likely voters had found Quinn to be facing a much steeper deficit going back to early March, just after the primaries.[20] [21] [22] In June 2010, he was behind Brady 36% to 47%.[23]

Scott Lee Cohen as a potential spoiler

The re-emergence of a former Democratic nominee as an Independent candidate is threatening to siphon just enough votes from Pat Quinn's re-election bid to tip the election to Republican Bill Brady.

Scott Lee Cohen, a pawnbroker whose business has made him a millionaire, jumped into the race in August of 2009. He was initially competing for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination before withdrawing to allow Pat Quinn to enjoy an uncontested field. He refiled to run for the lt. gubernatorial nomination and won that primary on February 2, 2010.

He soon disclosed personal information relating to a marriage that ended in divorce and to a former girlfriend, which led to calls from fellow Illinois Democrats, including incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, that he withdraw.[24] While Cohen was adamant that he would not withdraw when he spoke to media on February 4th, rumors were swirling that he was seeking a graceful exit and he officially resigned his nomination on February 7, 2010.[25]

However, in late April, he confirmed stories that he was exploring an independent gubernatorial bid and had paid a private polling firm to survey voters on their receptiveness to his potential candidacy.[26] He indeed filed to run as an Independent on May 3, 2010 and successfully submitted 130,000 signatures to petition onto the ballot.

Third party analysts give Cohen very little chance of winning but his presence in the race where the two major party nominees are polling so closely and his personal fortune make him a prime candidate to play spoiler.[27]

Cohen admits to disappointment and anger over the pressure form Democrats for him to give up his nomination, but says his newest effort to win election is about Illinois' political culture's need for an outsider more than about vengeance.

As he told reporters, "I am not perfect, but I am honest. Illinois needs honesty more than perfection."

February 2, 2010 primaries

The primary elections were held on February 2, 2010. Incumbent Governor Pat Quinn declared victory in the Democratic nomination over State Comptroller Dan Hynes in a close race. By February 3, Hynes had not conceded the race. Fewer than 6,000 votes separated the two, and the potential for recounts were discussed. On February 4, 2010, Hynes conceded the primary, making Pat Quinn the Democratic nominee.[28][29]

2010 Race for Governor - Democrat Primary [30]
Candidates Percentage
Pat Quinn (D) 50.5%
Dan Hynes 49.5%
Total votes 915,726

On the Republican side, Illinois State Senators Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard shared the lead in a race too close to call initially, with Andy McKenna in third by a razor thin margin.[31]

2010 Race for Governor - Republican Primary [32]
Candidates Percentage
Adam Andrzekewski (R) 14.5%
Bill Brady (R) 20.3%
Kirk Dillard (R) 20.2%
Andy McKenna (R) 19.3%
Dan Proft (R) 7.7%
Jim Ryan (R) 17.0%
Robert Schillerstorm (R) 1.0%
Total votes 767,485

Candidates

The Illinois Secretary of State maintains a list of candidates.[33]


Democratic

Withdrawn

  • Scott Lee Cohen withdrew his Democratic candidacy on March 5, 2010, leaving Gov. Quinn unopposed for his party's nod. Cohen has since refiled as an Independent candidate.
  • Attorney Ed Scanlan[34]
  • William "Dock" Walls[35] (endorsed Dan Hynes)[36] Walls has also since refiled to run as an Independent.

Republican

Withdrawn

  • Bob Schillerstrom, chair of the DuPage County Board, exited the race in late January and endorsed Jim Ryan. However, he remained on the ballot and drew a small percentage of primary votes. (endorsed Jim Ryan)[37]

Constitution

Green Party

Independent

Independent Conservative

  • Christopher Pedersen, an attorney, has simultaneously filed to run for every office on the November ballot and is currently facing three pending objections to his candidacy.[39]

Libertarian

Impact of Massachusetts Special Election

In January, 2010, the special election in Massachusetts to fill the seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy resulted in a win for the GOP. In the wake of the election of Scott Brown, pundits and analysts discussed the impact of the win in terms of a possible political landscape shift for Democrats across the spectrum in 2010.

The fallout of the GOP win in Massachusetts was predicted to be far-reaching. Massachusetts is widely regarded as the quintessential blue state, despite the majority of registered voters self-identifying as independents. Prior to December of 2009, conventional wisdom held that Republicans were unelectable to national office from the state. Post-election analysis, however, shows that Scott Brown's focus on national security, opposition to the closing of Guantanamo Bay, and theme of fiscal responsibility resonated with both independents and democrats across the state. Conditions in the 2010 governor's race in Illinois match up with the Massachusetts senate race on several levels. Both offices were formerly held by Democrats replaced mid-term. Both states have worsening unemployment numbers and economic troubles. Both states are dominated by the majority party and are experiencing incumbency fatigue.

It has been suggested that with the GOP victory in Massachusetts, independent voters in states like Illinois may become energized.[40] Nationally, tea party activists and conservative movement organizations are capable of raising vast amounts of money for local or state races. In the general gubernatorial election, that nationwide enthusiasm for party change may translate into significant campaign money for the eventual GOP candidate.

Polling

Improbably even given the much-predicted GOP wave of 2010, the Republican are steadily polling ahead in Illinois' gubernatorial race.

Illinois Dems may be wishing they'd moved differently in handling the complicated fall-out from former-Governor Blagojevich's ignominious exit from office. Meanwhile, their Congressional counterparts may be rethinking the decision to mete out a comparatively mild punishment to Sen. Roland Burris, Barack Obama's replacement, over ethical questions about his own appointment to the Senate.

Burris is not seeking election for a full term in his own right and the race for his seat as Illinois' junior Senator is tied between fellow Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk, spreading resources and attention thin for both parties.

The Chicago Tribune's own polling shows that voters are unsure of Bill Brady, but deeply dissatisfied with Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn. Quinn suffers especially on negative ratings, incurring the wrath of over half his constituents.[41]

2010 Race for Illinois Governor - Rasmussen Reports[42]
Date Reported Brady (R) Quinn (D) Other Don't Know
August 23, 2010[43] 46% 37% 6% 11%
August 9, 2010[44] 48% 35% 6% 12%
July 26, 2010[45] 44% 37% 11% 9%
July 7, 2010[46] 43% 40% 9% 8%
June 7, 2010[47] 47% 36% 8% 10%
April 28, 2010[48] 45% 38% 7% 10%
April 5, 2010[49] 46% 45% 2% 7%
March 8, 2010[50] 47% 37% 6% 9%
(Sample)[51] n=500 MoE=+/- 4.5% p=0.05

Presidential electoral history

2000 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 42.6%
Al Gore (D) 54.6%
2004 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George W. Bush (R) 44.5%
John Kerry (D) 54.8%
2008 Presidential Results[52]
Candidates Percentage
John McCain (R) 36.7%
Barack Obama (D) 61.8%
1992 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
George H.W. Bush (R) 34.3%
Bill Clinton (D) 48.6%
1996 Presidential Results
Candidates Percentage
Bob Dole (R) 36.8%
Bill Clinton (D) 54.3%

See also

External links

Candidate pages

References

  1. ↑ The Green Papers, "2010 Gubernatorial Primaries at a Glance"
  2. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Information for Voters", accessed July 7, 2010
  3. ↑ CQ Politics, "Race Ratings Chart 2010: Governor"
  4. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Gubernatorial races 2010
  5. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, “Candidate List, General Election, 11/2/10”, accessed September 6, 2010
  6. ↑ The Cook Political, “Governors: Race Ratings”
  7. ↑ CQ Politics, “2010 Race Ratings: Governors”
  8. ↑ Rasmussen Reports', “Election 2010: Scorecard Ratings”
  9. ↑ Rothenberg Political Report, “Governor Ratings”
  10. ↑ "Why Is Illinois So Corrupt?"
  11. ↑ "Illinois GOP hopes scandal leads to opportunity"
  12. ↑ Gubernatorial candidates tout ethics reform
  13. ↑ [1]
  14. ↑ [2]
  15. ↑ State's financial woes take center stage at GOP gubernatorial debate
  16. ↑ Half of US States Have Run Out Of Money For Unemployment Insurance
  17. ↑ Mass. GOP Win Could Have Illinois Effect
  18. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Toplines - Illinois Governor - July 7, 2010", July 7, 2010
  19. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 43%, Quinn (D) 40%", July 9, 2010
  20. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 45%, Quinn (D) 38%", April 30, 2010
  21. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Illinois Governor: Brady 45%, Quinn 38%", April 8, 2010
  22. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, "Illinois Governor: Brady 47%, Quinn 37%", March 9, 2010
  23. ↑ Rasmussen reports, " Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 47%, Quinn (D) 36%", June 10, 2010
  24. ↑ Wall Street Journal, "Illinois Democrats Pressure Nominee", February 6, 2010
  25. ↑ NPR, "Scott Lee Cohen Withdraws As Dem LG Nominee In Illinois", February 8, 2010
  26. ↑ Wonkette, "Scary Loser Scott Lee Cohen Will Be Governor of Illinois", April 26, 2010
  27. ↑ [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704216804575423690475446712.html?mod=djemPolitics_t Wall Street Journal, "Pawnbroker Campaigns for Redemption After Tearful Exit Under Pressure From Illinois Democrats, Cohen's New Bid Could Spoil Party's Chances in Governor's Race", August 19, 2010]
  28. ↑ "Illinois primary election continues with vote counting, possible recounts"
  29. ↑ Chicago Tribune "Hynes ends Democratic governor campaign"
  30. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Vote Totals List: General Primary 2010" accessed July 7, 2010
  31. ↑ Washington Post "Illinois governor's race too close to call"
  32. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Vote Totals List: General Primary 2010" accessed July 7, 2010
  33. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate List: General Election 11/2/2010", accessed July 7, 2010
  34. ↑ Campaign announcement
  35. ↑ "Two Democratic governor candidates drop out"
  36. ↑ "Local Democrats Give Endorsements to Hynes"
  37. ↑ "Bob Schillerstrom Leaves IL Governor's Race, Endorses R."
  38. ↑ campaign website
  39. ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Christopher Pedersen, Candidate Detail", accessed July 7 2010
  40. ↑ [3]
  41. ↑ The Chicago Tribune, "Brady holds slim lead over Quinn", September 3, 2010
  42. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “State Profiles: Illinois”, accessed August 30, 2010
  43. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Election 2010: Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 46%, Quinn (D) 37%”, August 23, 2010
  44. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 48%, Quinn (D) 35%”, August 12, 2010
  45. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 44%, Quinn (D) 37%”, July 29, 2010
  46. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 43%, Quinn (D) 40%”, July 9, 2010
  47. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 47%, Quinn (D) 36%”, June 10, 2010
  48. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady (R) 45%, Quinn (D) 38%”, April 30, 2010
  49. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady 46% Quinn 45%”, April 8, 2010
  50. ↑ Rasmussen Reports, “Illinois Governor: Brady 47%, Quinn 37%”, March 9, 2010
  51. ↑ [More complete methodology and sampling tabs are available at www.RasmussenReports.com]
  52. ↑ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections', accessed July 28, 2010
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Gubernatorial elections, 2010
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